Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys

We thank the U.S. National Science Foundation, Whitebox Advisors, and the International Center for Finance at the Yale School of Management for support with the survey data. We thank Leigh Ann Clark, Sumithra Sudhir and Minhua Wan for help with the data. We thank Christa Bouwman, Brian Knutson, Alan Moreira, Tyler Muir, John Scruggs, Hersh Shefrin and Paul Slovic for their suggestions. We thank participants in the JOIM (2016) conference on the Past, Present and Future of Behavioral Finance, and participants in the Columbia program for Financial Studies (2016) News and Finance Conference. The authors take responsibility for all errors. Dasol Kim started the paper prior to joining the Office of Financial Research; the opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Office of Financial Research or the U.S. Department of the Treasury. All errors are ours alone. Please direct correspondence to: william.goetzmann@yale.edu The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

• April 5, 2016