Conferences: Spring, 2019

Blockchain, Distributed Ledgers, and Financial Contracting

The NBER's conference on Blockchain, Distributed Ledgers, and Financial Contracting took place May 2-3 in Cambridge. Research Associates Dean Corbae of University of Wisconsin-Madison, Zhiguo He of University of Chicago, and Robert Townsend of MIT organized the meeting, sponsored by the Puelicher Center on Banking at the University of Wisconsin. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Jonathan Chiu, Bank of Canada, and Thorsten V. Koeppl, Queen's University, "The Economics of Cryptocurrency -- Bitcoin and Beyond" 
• Simon Janin and Akaki Mamageishvili, ETH Zurich, and Arthur Gervais, Imperial College London, "FileBounty: Secure and Efficient File Exchange in Rational Adversarial Environment" 
• Nick Arnosti, Columbia University, and Matt Weinberg, The Ohio State University, "Bitcoin: A Natural Oligopoly" 
• Leonid Kogan, MIT and NBER, "Economics of Proof-of-Stake Payment Systems" 
• Sean Cao and Baozhong Yang, Georgia State University, and William Cong, University of Chicago, "Financial Reporting and Blockchains: Audit Pricing, Misstatements, and Regulation" 
• Tetiana Davydiuk, Carnegie Mellon University; Deeksha Gupta, University of Pennsylvania; and Samuel Rosen, Temple University, "De-crypto-ing Signals in Initial Coin Offerings: Evidence of Rational Token Retention"

Economics of Autonomous and Electric Vehicles

The NBER's conference on Economics of Autonomous and Electric Vehicles took place June 6-7 in Stanford. Research Associates Susan Athey of Stanford University and Ryan Kellogg of University of Chicago, and Jing Li of MIT organized the meeting, sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Yixuan Liu, University of Texas at Austin, and Andrew B. Whinston, University of Texas, "Resolving Braess’s Paradox through Information Design: Routing for Heterogeneous Autonomous Vehicles" 
• Jennifer B. Hatch, Boston University, and Will Gorman, University of California, Berkeley, "GHG Implications of an Autonomous Future"
• Leslie A. Martin and Zan Fairweather, University of Melbourne, "The Potential Distributional Impacts of Automated Vehicle Technologies" 
• Boyoung Seo, Indiana University, and Matthew H. Shapiro, Singapore Management University, "Minimizing Fleet Emissions through Optimal EV Subsidy Design and Vehicle Replacement"
• Christopher R. Knittel, MIT and NBER, and James M. Sallee, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, "Vehicle Depreciation and Survival" 
• Avinash Balachandran, Toyota Research Institute, "Technological Frontiers and Challenges for AV Deployment" 
• Michael Ostrovsky, Stanford University and NBER, and Michael Schwarz, Microsoft, "Carpooling and the Economics of Self-driving Cars" (NBER Working Paper No. 24349) 
• Stephen P. Holland, University of North Carolina at Greensboro and NBER; Erin T. Mansur, Dartmouth College and NBER; Nicholas Muller, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER; and Andrew J. Yates, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, "The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Economics of Banning Gasoline Vehicles" 
• Zhe Zhang, University of California, San Diego, and Beibei Li, New York University, "Ridesharing, Spatial Frictions, and Urban Consumption Patterns" 
• Federico Boffa and Alessandro Fedele, Free University of Bolzano, and Alberto Iozzi, Università di Roma Tor Vergata, "Congestion and Incentives in the Age of Driverless Cars" 
• Avi Chaim Mersky and Constantine Samaras, Carnegie Mellon University, "Impact of Vehicle Automation on Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Siting and Energy Demand" 
• Ginger Zhe Jin, University of Maryland and NBER, and Guangyu Cao, Xi Weng, and Li-An Zhou, Peking University, "Market Expanding or Market Stealing? Competition with Network Effects in Bike-Sharing" (NBER Working Paper No. 24938)

Economic Consequences of Trade

An NBER conference on Economic Consequences of Trade took place April 5-6 in Cambridge. Research Associate Stephen J. Redding of Princeton University organized the meeting, sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Ryan Kim, Johns Hopkins University, and Jonathan Vogel, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, "Trade and Inequality across Local Labor Markets: The Margins of Adjustment" 
• Gene M. Grossman, Princeton University and NBER, and Elhanan Helpman, Harvard University and NBER, "Identity Politics and Trade Policy" (NBER Working Paper No. 25348) 
• Paula Bustos, CEMFI; Joan Monras, Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Jacopo Ponticelli, Northwestern University; and Juan Manuel Castro Vincenzi, Princeton University, "Structural Transformation, Industrial Specialization, and Endogenous Growth" 
• Alonso de Gortari , Princeton University, "Disentangling Global Value Chains" 
• Kevin Lim, University of Toronto; Daniel Trefler, University of Toronto and NBER; and Miaojie Yu, Peking University, "Trade and Innovation: The Role of Scale and Competition Effects" 
• Kirill Borusyak, Princeton University, and Xavier Jaravel, London School of Economics, "The Distributional Effects of Trade: Theory and Evidence from the United States" 
• Donald R. Davis, Columbia University and NBER, and Eric Mengus and Tomasz K. Michalski, HEC Paris, "Labor Market Polarization and the Great Divergence: Theory and Evidence" 
• Spencer Lyon, New York University, and Michael E. Waugh, New York University and NBER, "Quantifying the Losses from International Trade" 
• David Baqaee, University of California, Los Angeles, and Emmanuel Farhi, Harvard University and NBER, "Networks, Barriers, and Trade" 
• Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra, and Stephen J. Machin, London School of Economics, "Trade and Worker Deskilling" 
• Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University and NBER; Kyle Handley, University of Michigan; André Kurmann, Drexel University; and Philip A. Luck, University of Colorado, Denver, "The Impact of Chinese Trade on U.S. Employment: The Good, The Bad, and The Apocryphal"

Economics of Culture and Institutions

The NBER's conference on Economics of Culture and Institutions took place April 27 in Cambridge. Research Associates Alberto Bisin of New York University and Paola Giuliano of University of California, Los Angeles organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University, and Guido Tabellini, IGIER, "Identity, Beliefs and Political Conflict" 
• Michela Carlana, Harvard University; Alberto F. Alesina, Harvard University and NBER; Eliana La Ferrara, Bocconi University; and Paolo Pinotti, Bocconi University, "Revealing Stereotypes: Evidence from Immigrants in Schools" (NBER Working Paper No. 25333)
• Ruochen Dai, Peking University; Dilip Mookherjee, Boston University and NBER; Kaivan Munshi, University of Cambridge; and Xiaobo Zhang, Peking University, "The Community Origins of Private Enterprise in China" 
• David Atkin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER; Eve Sihra, Hebrew University; and Moses Shayo, Hebrew University, "How Do We Choose Our Identity? A Revealed Preference Approach Using Food Consumption" (NBER Working Paper No. 25693)
• Mathias Iwanowsky, University of Munich, and Andreas Madestam, Stockholm University, "State Repression, Exit, and Voice: Living in the Shadow of Cambodia's Killing Fields" Anke Becker, Harvard University, "On the Economic Origins of Constraints on Women's Sexuality"
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Economics of Energy Use in Transportation

The NBER’s conference on Economics of Energy Use in Transportation took place May 2-3 in Washington DC. Kate S. Whitefoot of Carnegie Mellon University and Research Associates Meghan R. Busse of Northwestern University and Christopher R. Knittel of MIT organized the meeting, sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Erich Muehlegger, University of California, Davis and NBER, and David S. Rapson, University of California, Davis, "Estimating Demand for Electric Vehicles in Low- and Middle-income Households" 
• Steven T. Berry, Kenneth Gillingham, and James A. Levinsohn, Yale University and NBER, "Technological Innovation and Per-Mile Automobile Insurance: Effects on Patterns of Vehicle Usage" 
• Samuel Stolper, University of Michigan, "Local Pass-Through and the Regressivity of Taxes: Evidence from Automotive Fuel Markets" 
• James B. Bushnell, University of California, Davis and NBER, and Jonathan E. Hughes, University of Colorado at Boulder, "Energy Consumption, Emissions and Modal Substitution in U.S. Freight Transportation" 
• Jeremy J. Michalek, Ines Azevedo, Constantine Samaras, and Pedro Ferreira, Carnegie Mellon University, and Nicholas Muller, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER, "Effects of On-Demand Ridesourcing on U.S. Vehicle Ownership, Travel Patterns, and Energy Use Externalities" 
• Jackson Dorsey, Indiana University; Ashley Langer, University of Arizona; and Shaun McRae, ITAM, "Fueling Alternatives: Evidence from Real-World Driving Data" 
• Stephen P. Holland, University of North Carolina at Greensboro and NBER; Erin T. Mansur, Dartmouth College and NBER; Nicholas Muller, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER; and Andrew J. Yates, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, "Environmental Benefits from Transportation Electrification" 
• Ziyan Chu, Resources for the Future, and Yichen Christy Zhou, Clemson University, "The Effect of Adopting NextGen Air Transportation System on Air Travel Performance: Evidence from High-frequency Air Traffic Data"

Economics of Research and Innovation in Agriculture 

The NBER’s conference on Economics of Research and Innovation in Agriculture took place May 17 in Washington DC. Research Associate Petra Moser of New York University organized the meeting, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Bradford L. Barham, Jeremy D. Foltz, and Ana Paula Melo, University of Wisconsin-Madison, "Academic Engagement, Commercialization, and Scholarship: Empirical Evidence from Agricultural and Life Scientists at US Land Grant Universities" (NBER Book Chapter c14293)
• Ellen M. Bruno, University of California, Berkeley, and Katrina Jessoe, University of California, Davis, "Water Prices, Water Markets, and Incentives to Adopt Agricultural Technology" (NBER Book Chapter c14296)
• Jared P. Hutchins, Brent Hueth, and Guilherme Rosa, University of Wisconsin-Madison, "Quantifying Heterogeneous Returns to Genetic Selection: Evidence from Wisconsin Dairies" (NBER Book Chapter c14297)
• Michael J. Andrews, NBER, "The Location of Public Agricultural Research Facilities and the Rate and Direction of Agricultural Innovation" (NBER Book Chapter c14292)
• Matthew S. Clancy and GianCarlo Moschini, Iowa State University, and Paul Heisey, Department of Agriculture, "The Roots of Agricultural Innovation: Evidence from Patents" (NBER Book Chapter c14295)
• Keith Meyers, University of Southern Denmark, and Paul Rhode, University of Michigan and NBER, "Exploring the Causes Driving Hybrid Corn Adoption from 1933 to 1955" (NBER Book Chapter c14294)
• Gregory D. Graff, Colorado State University, and David Zilberman, University of California, Berkeley, "Venture Capital and the Transformation of Private R&D for Agriculture and Food" (NBER Book Chapter c14298)

East Asian Seminar on Economics

The NBER’s conference on East Asian Seminar on Economics took place June 6-7 in Thailand. Research Associates Takatoshi Ito of Columbia University and Andrew K. Rose of University of California, Berkeley organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Peter K. Schott, Yale University and NBER; Andrew Greenland, Elon University; Mihai Ion, University of Arizona; and John Lopresti, College of William & Mary, "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization" 
• Shujiro Urata, Waseda University and ERIA; Kazunobu Hayakawa, Institute of Developing Economies; and Tadashi Ito, Gakushuin University, "Impacts of Increased Chinese Imports on Japan's Labor Market" 
• Minho Kim, Korea Development Institute, and Iona Hyojung Lee, Singapore Management University, "The Impact of Chinese Imports on Korean Manufacturing Plants" 
• Yu-Yin Wu, Shih Hui-Tzu, Chu-Hsuan Su, and Chu-Nan Hu, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, "Impact of Regional Economic Integration on Taiwan's Industrial Supply Chain of Vehicles" 
• Bingjing Li, National University of Singapore, and Loren Brandt and Peter Morrow, University of Toronto, "Is Processing Good? Theory and Evidence from China" 
• Hong Ma, Tsinghua University, and Peter Eppinger, Tubingen University, "Optimal Ownership and Firm Performance: Theory and Evidence from China’s FDI Liberalization" 
• Teresa C. Fort and Andrew B. Bernard, Dartmouth College and NBER, and Frederic Warzynski and Valerie Smeets, Aarhus University, "Heterogeneous Globalization: Offshoring and Reorganization" 
• Edwin Lai, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Steffan Qi , Hong Kong Baptist University; and Heiwai Tang, Johns Hopkins University, "Global Sourcing and Domestic Value-added in Gross Exports" 
• Yong Wang, Peking University, and Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University and NBER, "The Sandwich Effect: Challenges for Middle-Income Countries" 
• Toshihiro Okubo, Keio University, and Richard Baldwin, Graduate Institute, Geneva and NBER, "GVC Journeys: Industrialisation and Deindustrialisation in the Age of the Second Unbundling " 
• Ayako Obashi, Aoyama Gakuin University, and Fukunari Kimura, Keio University, "New Developments in International Production Networks: Impact of Digital Technologies" 
• Rodney Tyers, Australian National University, and Yixiao Zhou , Curtin University, "US-China Rivalry: The Macro Policy Choices" 
• Arnaud Costinot and Iván Werning, MIT and NBER, "Robots, Trade, and Luddism: A Sufficient Statistic Approach to Optimal Technology Regulation" (NBER Working Paper No. 25103)

Innovation Policy and the Economy 2019

The NBER’s conference on Innovation Policy and the Economy 2019 took place April 16 in Washington DC. Research Associates Josh Lerner of Harvard University and Scott Stern of MIT organized the meeting, sponsored by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• William R. Kerr, Harvard University and NBER, "The Gift of Global Talent" (based on his recent book)
• Ashish Arora and Sharon Belenzon, Duke University and NBER; Andrea Patacconi, Norwich Business School; and Jungkyu Suh, Duke University, "The Changing Structure of American Innovation: Cautionary Remarks for Economic Growth"
• Margaret Kyle, MINES ParisTech, "The Alignment of Innovation Policy and Social Welfare: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals" 
• Fiona Scott Morton, Yale University and NBER; Carl Shapiro, University of California, Berkeley and NBER; and Giulio Federico, European Commission, "Antitrust and Innovation: Welcoming and Protecting Disruption" 
• Edward L. Glaeser, Harvard University and NBER, and Naomi Hausman, Hebrew University, "The Spatial Mismatch Between Innovation and Joblessness" 
• Albert Bravo-Biosca, Nesta, "Experimental Innovation Policy"

International Seminar on Macroeconomics

The NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics took place June 27-28 in London. Research Associates Kristin Forbes of MIT and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas of University of California, Berkeley organized the meeting hosted by the Bank of England. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Ulrike Malmendier, University of California, Berkeley and NBER; Demian Pouzo, University of California, Berkeley; and Victoria Vanasco, CREI, "Investor Experiences, Capital Flows and Debt Pricing" (NBER Working Paper No. 24697)
• Francois Fontaine, Paris School of Economics; Julien Martin, UQAM; and Isabelle Mejean, Ecole Polytechnique, "Price Discrimination Within and Across EMU Markets: Evidence from French Exporters" 
• Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University and NBER, and Yinxi Xie, Columbia University, "Monetary Policy in a World of Global Supply Chains" 
• Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin and NBER; Yuriy Gorodnichenko,University of California, Berkeley and NBER; Saten Kumar, AUT University; and Mathieu Pedemonte, University of California, Berkeley, "Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?" (NBER Working Paper No. 24788)
• Sergio de Ferra, Stockholm University; Kurt Mitman, Institute for International Economic Studies; and Federica Romei, Stockholm School of Economics, "Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks" 
• Chris Redl, Bank of England, "Uncertainty Matters: Evidence from Close Elections" 
• Nuno T. Coimbra, Paris School of Economics, "Sovereigns at Risk: A Dynamic Model of Sovereign Debt and Banking Leverage" 
• Julia Bevilaqua, Galina Hale, and Eric Tallman, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, "Corporate Spreads, Sovereign Spreads, and Crises"

Longer Working Lives and Labor Demand

An NBER conference on Longer Working Lives and Labor Demand took place April 5 in Cambridge. Research Associate Kevin S. Milligan of University of British Columbia organized the meeting, sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Courtney Coile, Wellesley College and NBER; Kevin S. Milligan, University of British Columbia and NBER; and David A. Wise, Harvard University and NBER, "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Working Longer - Introduction and Summary" 
• Giulia Bovini, London School of Economics, and Matteo Paradisi, Harvard University, "Labor Substitutability and The Impact of Raising the Retirement Age" 
• Nicole Maestas, Harvard University and NBER; Kathleen J. Mullen, David Powell, and Jeffrey Wenger, RAND Corporation; and Till M. von Wachter, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, "The Value of Working Conditions in the United States and Implications For the Structure of Wages" (NBER Working Paper No. 25204)
• Simon Jäger, MIT and NBER, "Marginal Jobs and Job Surplus: A Test of the Efficiency of Separations" (NBER Working Paper No. 25492 )
• Francesca Carta and Francesco D'Amuri, Bank of Italy, and Till M. von Wachter, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, "Workforce Aging, Pension Reforms, and Firm Dynamics" 

Machine Learning in Health Care

The NBER’s conference on Machine Learning in Health Care took place May 10 in Cambridge. Research Associates David M. Cutler of Harvard University and Sendhil Mullainathan of University of Chicago, and Ziad Obermeyer of University of California, Berkeley organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Hagai Rossman and Smadar Shilo, Weizmann Institute of Science, "Childhood Obesity Prediction and Risk Factor Analysis from Nationwide Health Records" 
• Jason Abaluck, Yale University and NBER; Leila Agha, Dartmouth College and NBER; and David C. Chan Jr, Stanford University and NBER, "Why Should Get Blood? Personalizing Medicine with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects" 
• Emma J. Pierson and Jure Leskovec, Stanford University, David M. Cutler, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Ziad Obermeyer, "Using Machine Learning to Explain Socioeconomic and Racial Gaps in Pain" 
• Rediet Abebe, Cornell University; Shawndra Hill and Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, Microsoft Research; Peter M. Small, Rockefeller Foundation; and H. Andrew Schwartz, Stony Brook University, "Using Search Queries to Understand Health Information Needs in Africa" 
• Tony Duan, Pranav Rajpurkar, Dillon Laird, Andrew Ng, and Sanjay Basu, Stanford University, "Clinical Value of Predicting Individual Treatment Effects for Intensive Blood Pressure Therapy: A Machine Learning Experiment to Estimate Treatment Effects from Randomized Trial Data"
• Michael A. Ribers, University of Copenhagen, and Hannes Ullrich, DIW Berlin, "Battling Antibiotic Resistance: Can Machine Learning Improve Prescribing?" 

New Developments in Long-Term Asset Management

The NBER’s conference on New Developments in Long-Term Asset Management took place May 9-10 in Cambridge. Research Associates Monika Piazzesi of Stanford University and Luis M. Viceira of Harvard University organized the meeting, sponsored by Norges Bank Investment Management. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Matthew Backus, Columbia University and NBER; Christopher Conlon, New York University; and Michael Sinkinson, Yale University and NBER, "Common Ownership in America: 1980-2017" (NBER Working Paper No. 25454) 
• Andra C. Ghent, University of Wisconsin, Madison, "What's Wrong with Pittsburgh? Delegated Investors and Liquidity Concentration" 
• Aleksandar Andonov, University of Amsterdam; Roman Kräussl, University of Luxembourg; and Joshua Rauh, Stanford University and NBER, "The Subsidy to Infrastructure as an Asset Class" (NBER Working Paper No. 25045)
• Lubos Pastor, University of Chicago and NBER; Robert F. Stambaugh, University of Pennsylvania and NBER; and Lucian A. Taylor, University of Pennsylvania, "Fund Tradeoffs" (NBER Working Paper No. 23670) 
• Mikhail Chernov, University of California at Los Angeles and NBER; Lars A. Lochstoer, University of California at Los Angeles; and Stig Lundeby, Norwegian School of Economics, "Conditional Dynamics and the Multi-Horizon Risk-Return Trade-off" (NBER Working Paper No. 25361)
• Ralph S. J. Koijen, University of Chicago and NBER; Robert J. Richmond, New York University; and Motohiro Yogo, Princeton University and NBER, "Which Investors Matter for Global Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?" 
• Robin Greenwood, Harvard University and NBER, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, University of California at Berkeley and NBER, "The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves" 
• Arpit Gupta, New York University, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Columbia University and NBER, "Valuing Private Equity Investments Strip by Strip" 
• Anil K. Kashyap, University of Chicago and NBER; Natalia Kovrijnykh, Arizona State University; Jian Li, University of Chicago; and Anna Pavlova, London Business School, "The Benchmark Inclusion Subsidy" (NBER Working Paper No. 25337)

The 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics

The 34th NBER Annual conference on Macroeconomics took place April 11-12 in Cambridge. Research Associates Martin S. Eichenbaum of Northwestern University, Erik Hurst of University of Chicago, and Jonathan A. Parker of MIT organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

• Nir Jaimovich, University of Zurich; Sergio Rebelo, Northwestern University and NBER; Arlene Wong, Princeton University and NBER; and Miao Ben Zhang, University of Southern California, "Trading up and the Skill Premium" 
• Davide Debortoli, Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Jordi Galí, CREI and NBER; and Luca Gambetti, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, "On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint" 
• Michael McLeay, Bank of England, and Silvana Tenreyro, London School of Economics, "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve" 
• Margherita Borella, Universita di Torino; Mariacristina De Nardi, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and NBER; and Fang Yang, Louisiana State University, "The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College Educated Americans Born in the 1960s" (NBER Working Paper No. 25661)
• Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University; Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER; and Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong, "Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics" 
• Thomas Philippon, New York University and NBER, and Germán Gutiérrez, New York University, "Explaining the Rising Concentration of U.S. Industries: Superstars, Intangibles, Globalization or Market Power?"