Conferences: Summer, 2009

32nd International Seminar on Macroeconomics

NBER's 32nd International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISOM) took place on June 12 and 13. NBER Research Associates Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard University and Francesco Giavazzi of Bocconi University served as ISOM co-chairs. Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business School, and Kenneth D. West, NBER and University of Wisconsin, organized this year's program, which was hosted by the Central Bank of Cyprus. The following papers were discussed:

• “Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001” -- Dennis Quinn, Georgetown University, and Joachim Voth, CREI, Barcelona
• “The Default Puzzle: Underwriters and Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815-2007” (NBER Working Paper No. 15128) -- Marc Flandreau, Graduate Institute Geneva; Juan Flores, University of Geneva; Norbert Gaillard, Sciences Po, and Sebastian Nieto, OECD
• “Systemic Risk-Taking and the U.S. Financial Crisis” -- Romain Ranciere, IMF, and Aaron Tornell, University of California, Los Angeles
• “The Feldstein-Horioka Fact” -- Domenico Giannone and Michele Lenza, European Central Bank
• “Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?” -- Philippe Bacchetta and Toni Beutler, University of Lausanne, and Eric van Wincoop, University of Virginia and NBER
• “International Reserves and Underdeveloped Capital Markets” -- Kathryn Dominguez, University of Michigan and NBER
• “The Nontradable Goods’ Real Exchange Rate Puzzle” -- Lukasz Drozd, University of Wisconsin, and Jaromir Nosal, Columbia University
• “Assessing External Equilibrium in Low Income Countries” -- Lone Christiansen, Alessandro Prati, Luca Antonio Ricci, Stephen Tokarick, and Thierry Tressel, IMF
• The conference concluded with a Panel Discussion on “Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment” chaired by Athanasios Orphanides, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus. The panelists were: Huw Pill, European Central Bank; Vincent Reinhart, American Enterprise Institute; Volker Wieland, Goethe University Frankfurt; and John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Twentieth Annual EASE Conference

The NBER, the China Center for Economic Research, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, the Korea Development Institute, the Singapore Management University, and the Tokyo Center for Economic Research jointly sponsored the NBER’s 20th Annual East Asian Seminar on Economics on June 26-27. Takatoshi Ito, University of Tokyo and NBER, and Andrew K. Rose, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, organized the conference, which focused on “Commodity Prices and Markets.” These papers were discussed:

• Jan J. J. Groen, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Paolo A. Pesenti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER, “Commodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments”
• Kalok Chan, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and Yiuman Tse and Michael Williams, University of Texas at San Antonio, “The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Futures Markets”
• Christian Broda and John Romalis, University of Chicago and NBER, “Identifying the Relationship Between Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility”
• Joonhyuk Song, KDI, and Junhee Lee, Yeungnam University, “Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Case of Korea”
• Feng Lu, China Center for Economic Research, “China Takes the Lead: Changes of the Global Commodity and Ocean Freight Markets in Recent Years”
• Mario Crucini, Vanderbilt University and NBER, and Martin Berka, Massey University, “The Consumption Terms of Trade and Commodity Prices”
• Ichiro Fukunaga, Bank of Japan and TCER, and Naohisa Hirakata and Nao Sudo, Bank of Japan, “The Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Industry-Level Production and Prices in the U.S. and Japan”
• Biing-Shen Kuo, National Chengchi University and Su-Ling Peng, CIER, “Price Pass-Through, Household Expenditure and Industrial Structure: The Case of Taiwan”
• Etsuro Shioji and Taisuke Uchino, Hitotsubashi University and TCER, “Pass-Through of Oil Prices to Japanese Domestic Prices”
• Sungbae An, Singapore Management University, and Heedon Kang, Bank of Korea, “Oil Shocks in a DSGE Model for the Korean Economy”

NBER Conference in Beijing

The eleventh annual NBER-CCER Conference on China and the World Economy took place at the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) in Beijing on July 2 and 3. The conference program was jointly arranged by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the CCER at Beijing University, and Tsinghua University. After opening remarks by U.S. organizer Shang-Jin Wei of NBER and Columbia University, Yang Yao of CCER, and Chong-En Bai of Tsinghua University, the following topics were discussed:

Causes and Impacts of the Crisis

• Feng Lu, CCER, “China and the Financial Crisis”
• Deborah Lucas, NBER and Northwestern University, “Measuring and Managing Governmental Financial Risk”
• David Li, Tsinghua University, “The International Monetary System”

Exchange Rates and Prices

• Charles Engel, NBER and Wisconsin-Madison, “Exchange Rate Policies” (NBER Working Paper No. 14829)
• Fan He, CASS, “China’s Exchange Rate Regime”
• David Weinstein, NBER and Columbia University, “Variety, Prices, and Welfare: Macroeconomic Lessons from Micro-data”

Financial Liberalization, Risks and Urbanization

• Yiping Huang, CCER, “China's Asymmetric Market Liberalization and Its Consequences”
• Todd Sinai, NBER and University of Pennsylvania, “Assessing the Risks of Home Ownership”
• James Wen, Trinity College, “Urbanization in China”

Labor and Health Issues

• Chong-En Bai, “Declining Shares of Labor Income in China”
• Dennis Yang, Virginia Tech University, “Accounting for Rising Wages in China”
• Jonathan Skinner, NBER and Dartmouth College, “Measuring Inefficiency in Health Care: A Global Perspective” (NBER Working Paper No. 14257)
• Xiaoyan Lei, CCER, “Health Issues of Retirees --- Evidence from a Recent Survey”

Demography, Savings, and Economic Growth

• Shang-Jin Wei, “Sex Ratios, Savings Rate, and Entrepreneurship in China” (NBER Working Paper No. 15093)
• Yuyu Chen, PKU, “Consumption and Savings of Chinese Urban Households”
• Yang Yao, CCER, “Demographic Transition and China’s Growth Model”

Trade

• Miaojie Yu, CCER, “Trade Liberalization, Productivity, and Firm Heterogeneity”
• Pinelopi Goldberg, NBER and Princeton University, “Effects of Patent Enforcement in Pharmaceuticals in Developing Countries”

The Economics of Household Saving

NBER Research Associate Erik Hurst of the University of Chicago and NBER President James Poterba of MIT are co-directing a two-year research project on the "The Economics of Household Saving." At the inaugural research meeting for this project, which was held on July 18, the following papers were discussed:

• Annamaria Lusardi, Dartmouth College and NBER, and Olivia S. Mitchell, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, “How Ordinary Consumers Make Complex Economic Decisions: Financial Literacy and Retirement Readiness”
• John Beshears, Harvard University; James J. Choi, Yale University and NBER; Brigitte C. Madrian and David Laibson, Harvard University and NBER; and Katherine L. Milkman, University of Pennsylvania, “The Effect of Providing Peer Information on Retirement Savings Decisions”
• Ulrike Malmendier, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, and Stefan Nagel, Stanford University and NBER, “Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?”(NBER Working Paper No. 14813)
• Peter J. Kuhn, University of California, Santa Barbara; Peter Kooreman, Tilburg University; Arie Kapteyn, RAND Corporation; and Adriaan Soetevent, University of Amsterdam, “The Own and Social Effects of an Unexpected Income Shock: Evidence from the Dutch Postcode Lottery” (NBER Working Paper No. 14035)
• Miles S. Kimball, University of Michigan and NBER, and Tyler Shumway, University of Michigan, “Fatalism, Locus of Control, and Retirement Saving”