COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on the Composition of the Population with Disabilities

We consider the evolution of employment rates among the population identified as persons with disabilities (PWD) in the United States during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), we analyze flows into and out of the population with reported disabilities and document compositional changes during the pandemic’s first year. We find an important composition shift among the PWD population, with a higher share reporting that they suffer from disabilities in surveys conducted after March 2020. Importantly, those reporting PWD status during 2020 were more likely to have stronger employment histories than observed for years before COVID. Furthermore, the cohort reporting disability in 2020 differs from previous cohorts in terms of the types of impairments affecting them, with a sizable increase in the share reporting cognitive/mental health difficulties. The increase in disability reported in 2020 came disproportionately from those employed and working from home at least some days a week, with smaller increases among those working away from home, or not working at all. We also find that while the share of workers in telework-amenable occupations rose among non-PWD workers during the early stages of the pandemic, it declined among PWD workers – signaling that potential structural changes in the labor market favoring these types of occupations and remote work might not have been advantageous for promoting employment among PWD. In a preliminary analysis of the SSA’s Disability Analysis File Public Use File (DAF PUF), we document increases in mortality for SSDI recipients in 2020 and 2021 relative to the previous eight years. This increase in mortality explains a nontrivial portion of the reduction in active claims in 2020 and 2021.