NB22-02: Explaining Inter-State Variation in Disability Applications During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, and its associated health and economic burden, has unfolded and continues to progress quite differently across states in the U.S. These differences are due to a variety of factors including heterogeneity across states in population density, SES characteristics, health, fiscal realities, and policies (White & Hebert-Dufresne, 2020). Variation in the timing and magnitude of the pandemic may have affected the dynamics of SSDI, SSI, and Concurrent applications. In this project, we seek to explain inter-state differences in the monthly dynamics of disability applications after the onset of the pandemic, and to understand how the effects of the pandemic on disability applications may have been mitigated by other factors including safety-net programs. The project will utilize State Agency Monthly Workload Data (MOWL) merged with state-level information on COVID-19 cases and deaths and other state-level and national data of varying temporal frequency, including structural barriers, economic factors, and policies. Understanding how the pandemic has affected state-level disability applications since March 2020 is critical for policymakers to grapple with the fiscal impact of COVID-19, as well as to anticipate demands on the SSA front-line staff who process applications. In addition, it may shed light on long-term effects on disability applications in the aftermath of COVID-19.