NB21-16: Projecting Trends in Undocumented and Legal Immigrant Populations in the United States

The size and trajectory of the documented and undocumented immigrant population are crucial inputs into Social Security models and projections. This project will create an improved measure of the undocumented population in the United States based on identity cards issued by the Mexican government to individuals who reside in the United States. We will then use these data, combined with estimates from existing studies on the effects of economic factors, demographic factors, and government policies to project national-level trends in the undocumented population. We will use the findings to better understand the forces that influence both the undocumented and documented populations.