Department of Economics
New Haven, CT 06520-8268
Institutional Affiliation: University of Rochester
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2019||Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency|
with Aleh Tsyvinski, Xi Wu: w25882
We find that three factors – cryptocurrency market, size, and momentum – capture the cross-sectional expected cryptocurrency returns. We consider a comprehensive list of price- and market-related factors in the stock market, and construct their cryptocurrency counterparts. Nine cryptocurrency factors form successful long-short strategies that generate sizable and statistically significant excess returns. We show that all of these strategies are accounted for by the cryptocurrency three-factor model.
|August 2018||Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency|
with Aleh Tsyvinski: w24877
We establish that the risk-return tradeoff of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum) is distinct from those of stocks, currencies, and precious metals. Cryptocurrencies have no exposure to most common stock market and macroeconomic factors. They also have no exposure to the returns of currencies and commodities. In contrast, we show that the cryptocurrency returns can be predicted by factors which are specific to cryptocurrency markets. Specifically, we determine that there is a strong time-series momentum effect and that proxies for investor attention strongly forecast cryptocurrency returns. Finally, we create an index of exposures to cryptocurrencies of 354 industries in the US and 137 industries in China.