NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Yu Liu

Fudan University
Building 11, Room 107
220 Handan Road, Yangpu District
Shanghai, China, 200433

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Institutional Affiliation: Fudan University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

March 2018The Dynamic Effects of Computerized VAT Invoices on Chinese Manufacturing Firms
with Haichao Fan, Nancy Qian, Jaya Wen: w24414
This paper uses a balanced panel of large manufacturing firms to provide novel evidence on the dynamic effects of computerizing VAT invoices on tax revenues and firm behavior in China, 1998-2007. We find that computerization explains 14.38% of cumulative VAT revenues and increases the effective average tax rate by approximately 4.7-14% in the seven subsequent years. The evidence suggests that the effects of computerization change over time: tax revenue gains are likely to be smaller in the long run. Meanwhile, firms reduce output and input, and increase productivity monotonically over time.
 
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