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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Yaron Levi

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Institutional Affiliation: University of Southern California

NBER Working Papers and Publications

February 2018Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts
with David Hirshleifer, Ben Lourie, Siew Hong Teoh: w24293
Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts’ judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued increases. Also consistent with decision fatigue, we find that the more forecasts an analyst issues, the higher the likelihood the analyst resorts to more heuristic decisions by herding more closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market und...

Published: David Hirshleifer & Yaron Levi & Ben Lourie & Siew Hong Teoh, 2019. "Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Financial Economics, . citation courtesy of

 
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