NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Tuomas Tomunen

Graduate School of Business
Columbia University
3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Columbia University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

September 2018Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications
with Robert J. Hodrick: w25092
We examine the Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005, 2008) model in several out-of-sample analyzes. The model's one-factor forecasting structure characterizes the term structures of additional currencies in samples ending in 2003. In post-2003 data one-factor structures again characterize each currency's term structure, but we reject equality of the coefficients across the two samples. We derive some implications of the model for the predictability of cross-currency investments, but we find little support for these predictions in either pre-2004 or post-2003 data. The model fails to beat historical average returns in recursive out-or-sample forecasting of excess rates of return for bonds and currencies.
 
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