University of Southern California
3620 South Vermont Ave.
Kaprielian (KAP) Hall, 300
Los Angeles, CA 90089
Institutional Affiliation: University of Southern California
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2020||Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020|
with Yothin Jinjarak, Sameer Nair-Desai, Weining Xin, Joshua Aizenman: w27185
This paper takes stock of the daily data gathered until April 28, 2020, tracing the associations between COVID-19 mortality and policy interventions that aim to limit social contact and containment, accounting for global pandemic diffusion patterns. A panel local projection analysis suggests that, with a lag, more stringent pandemic policies were associated with significantly lower mortality growth rates. The association between stricter pandemic policies and lower future mortality growth is more pronounced in countries with a greater proportion of the elderly population, higher density, greater proportion of employees in vulnerable occupations, greater democratic freedom, more international travels, and further distance from the equator. Countries with greater policy stringency in place...
|June 2019||Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting Challenges Under Fiscal Dominance|
with Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak: w25996
Countries have increased significantly their public-sector borrowing since the Global Financial Crisis, potentially changing debt service costs sensitivity to tightening monetary policy. In this context, we test for greater fiscal dominance over 2000-2017 under Inflation Targeting (IT) and non-IT regimes. We find that evidence consistent with the presence of fiscal dominance varies across countries and debt configurations. Higher ratios of public debt-to-GDP may appear associated with lower policy interest rates in Advanced Economies. However, we find that the pattern of lower rates and higher debt in these countries is largely explained by a declining natural rate of interest. The most robust evidence of fiscal dominance lies among Emerging Markets under non-IT regimes, composed mostly of...