Pierre De Leo

We find that variation in expected U.S. productivity explains over half of U.S. dollar/G7 exchange rate fluctuations. Both correctly-anticipated changes in productivity and expectational noise, which influences the expectation of productivity but not its eventual realization, have large effects....

We document that emerging market central banks adhere to Taylor-type rules and lower their policy rates when economic activity slows down, including as a response to U.S. monetary policy tightening. This suggests a countercyclical monetary policy stance. However, in contrast to advanced economies,...