Jorge A. Tamayo
Harvard Business School
Soldiers Field, Morgan Hall 292
Boston, MA 02163
Institutional Affiliation: Harvard University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|September 2019||Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia|
with Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso: w26313
We investigate the effects of job displacement, as a result of mass-layoffs, on criminal arrests using a novel matched employer-employee-crime dataset in Medellín, Colombia. Job displacement leads to immediate earnings losses, and an increased likelihood of being arrested for both the displaced worker and for other youth in the family. We leverage variation in opportunities for legitimate reemployment and access to consumption credit to investigate the mechanisms underlying this job loss-crime relationship. Workers in booming sectors with more opportunities for legitimate reemployment exhibit smaller increases in arrests after job losses. Greater exposure to expansions in consumption credit also lowers the job loss-crime elasticity.
|August 2019||Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia|
with Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham: w26203
Canonical models of crime emphasize economic incentives. Yet, causal evidence of sorting into criminal occupations in response to individual-level variation in incentives is limited. We link administrative socioeconomic microdata with the universe of arrests in Medellín over a decade. We exploit exogenous variation in formal-sector employment around a socioeconomic-score cutoff, below which individuals receive benefits if not formally employed, to test whether a higher cost to formal-sector employment induces crime. Regression discontinuity estimates show this policy generated reductions in formal-sector employment and a corresponding spike in organized crime, but no effects on crimes of impulse or opportunity.
|May 2019||Managerial Quality and Productivity Dynamics|
with Achyuta Adhvaryu, Anant Nyshadham: w25852
Which managerial skills, traits, and practices matter most for productivity? How does the observability of these features affect how appropriately they are priced into wages? Combining two years of daily, line-level production data from a large Indian garment firm with rich survey data on line managers, we find that several key dimensions of managerial quality, like attention, autonomy, and control, are important for learning-by-doing as well as for overall productivity, but are not commensurately rewarded in pay. Counterfactual simulations of our structural model show large gains from screening potential hires via psychometric measurement and training to improve managerial practices.
|July 2018||Helping Children Catch Up: Early Life Shocks and the PROGRESA Experiment|
with Achyuta Adhvaryu, Anant Nyshadham, Teresa Molina: w24848
Can investing in children who faced adverse events in early childhood help them catch up? We answer this question using two orthogonal sources of variation – resource availability at birth (local rainfall) and cash incentives for school enrollment – to identify the interaction between early endowments and investments in children. We find that adverse rainfall in the year of birth decreases grade attainment, post-secondary enrollment, and employment outcomes. But children whose families were randomized to receive conditional cash transfers experienced a much smaller decline: each additional year of program exposure during childhood mitigated more than 20 percent of early disadvantage.