Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
1000 Peachtree Street, NE
Atlanta, GA 30309
Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|June 2020||Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic|
with , , , , , , , , , , , , , : w27418
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and disagreement among professional forecasters about future GDP growth. Three results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak amplitudes differ greatly – from a rise of around 100% (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 and subjective uncertainty around year-ahead sales for UK firms to a 20-fold rise in forecaster disagreement abo...