Department of Economics
New York University
19 West 4th Street, 5th Floor
New York, NY 10012
Institutional Affiliation: New York University
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|October 2019||Demand Conditions and Worker Safety: Evidence from Price Shocks in Mining|
with Kerwin Kofi Charles, Matthew S. Johnson, Melvin Stephens Jr.: w26401
We investigate how demand conditions affect employers' provision of safety - something about which theory is ambivalent. Positive demand shocks relax financial constraints that limit safety investment, but simultaneously raise the opportunity cost of increasing safety rather than production. We study the U.S. metals mining sector, leveraging exogenous demand shocks from short-term variation in global commodity prices. We find that positive price shocks substantially increase workplace injury rates and safety regulation non-compliance. While these results indicate the general dominance of the opportunity cost effect, shocks that only increase mines' cash-flow lower injury rates, illustrating that financial constraints also affect safety.
|December 2018||Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices|
with Samuel P. Fraiberger, Damien Puy, Romain Rancière: w25353
We investigate the relationship between media sentiment and international equity prices using a new dataset of 4 million news articles published between 1991 and 2015. Three key results emerge. First, news sentiment robustly predicts (future) daily returns around the world. However, we find a sharp contrast between the effect of local news and that of global news: whereas local news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local equity returns, global news sentiment has a larger impact on returns that does not reverse in the short run. Second, news sentiment affects local prices mainly through the investment decisions of foreign — rather than local — investors. Third, large variations in global news sentiment predominantly happen in the absence of new inf...