45 Columbus Avenue (Martino Hall) room 623A
New York, NY 10023
Institutional Affiliation: Fordham University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2020||The Variance Risk Premium in Equilibrium Models|
with Geert Bekaert, Eric Engstrom: w27108
The equity variance risk premium is the expected compensation earned for selling variance risk in equity markets. The variance risk premium is positive and shows moderate persistence. High variance risk premiums coincide with the left tail of the consumption growth distribution shifting down. These facts, together with a positive, yet moderate, difference between the risk-neutral entropy and variance of the aggregate market return, refute the bulk of the extant consumption-based asset pricing models. We introduce a tractable habit model that does fit the data. In the model, the variance risk premium depends positively (negatively) on “bad” (“good”) consumption growth uncertainty.
|November 2016||Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates|
with Geert Bekaert, Eric Engstrom: w22839
We extract aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks for the US economy from macroeconomic data on inflation, real GDP growth, core inflation and the unemployment gap. We first use unconditional non-Gaussian features in the data to achieve identification of these structural shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. We find that recessions in the 1970s and 1980s are better characterized as driven by supply shocks while later recessions were driven primarily by demand shocks. The Great Recession exhibited large negative shocks to both demand and supply. We then use conditional (time-varying) non-Gaussian features of the structural shocks to estimate "macro risk factors" for supply and demand shocks that drive "bad" (negatively skewed) and "good" (positively skewed) variation for...