Áureo de Paula

University College London
Department of Economics
Gower Street
United Kingdom

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliations: University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2020Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception
with Grant Miller, Christine Valente: w27271
Nearly one-quarter of married, fertile-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa say that they want to avoid pregnancy but are not using contraceptives. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to study this puzzle in a developing country using detailed data on women’s subjective probabilistic beliefs about contraception and contraceptive attributes. Policy counterfactuals based on a structural model suggest that costly interventions such as eliminating supply constraints would only have modest effects on contraceptive use. Alternatively, increasing partners’ approval of methods, aligning partners’ fertility preferences with women’s, and correcting women’s expectations about pregnancy risk absent contraception have the potential to increase use considerably. We provide additional empiri...
April 2020A Sticky-Price View of Hoarding
with Christopher Hansman, Harrison Hong, Vishal Singh: w27051
Hoarding of staples has long worried policymakers due to concerns about shortages. We quantify how sticky store prices---delayed price adjustment to shocks by reputable retailers---exacerbate hoarding. When prices are sticky, households hoard not only for precautionary motives but also non-precautionary motives: they stockpile as they would during a standard retail promotion or for the purpose of retail arbitrage. Using US supermarket scanner data covering the 2008 Global Rice Crisis, an episode driven by an observable cost shock due an Indian ban on raw rice exports, we find that sticky prices account for a sizeable fraction of hoarding. Hoarding is mostly for own use and more prevalent among richer households. Our findings are consistent with media reports of distributional concerns as...
February 2015Hoard Behavior and Commodity Bubbles
with Harrison Hong, Vishal Singh: w20974
Hoarding by large speculators is often blamed for contributing to commodity market panics and bubbles. Using supermarket scanner data on US household purchases during the 2008 Rice Bubble, we show that hoarding is in fact more systemic, affecting even households who have no resale motive. Export bans led to a spike in prices worldwide in the first half of 2008, which spilled over into US markets. Anticipating shortages, US households with previous purchases of rice, especially those of Asian ethnicity, nearly doubled their buying around the peak of the bubble. We document transmission mechanisms through over-extrapolation from high prices and contagion, as many households bought rice for the first and last time during the bubble.
October 2007The Informal Sector
with José A. Scheinkman: w13486
This paper investigates the determinants of informal economic activity. We present two equilibrium models of informality and test their implications using a survey of 48,000+ small firms in Brazil. We define informality as tax avoidance; firms in the informal sector avoid tax payments but suffer other limitations. In the first model there is a single industry and informal firms face a higher cost of capital and a limitation on size. As a result informal firms are smaller and have a lower capital labor ratio. When education is an imperfect proxy for ability, we show that the interaction of the manager's education and formality has a positive correlation with firm size. These implications are supported by our empirical analysis. The second model highlights the role of value added taxes in tr...
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