Consumer Preferences for Cigarettes and Heated Tobacco Products in Japan: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment

Heated tobacco products (HTPs), a harm reducing cigarette alternative, gained popularity over the past decade and appear to have contributed significantly to the reduction of smoking in Japan. While the increased popularity of HTPs suggests a consumer preference for cigarette alternatives, there is a limited understanding of how consumers choose between different tobacco products. Understanding consumer choice is especially salient given the evolving policy landscape and proposals to increase HTP taxes. This study uses a large discrete choice experiment to examine the decision-making processes of smokers in Japan when choosing between cigarettes, HTPs, and quitting. We assess the influence of various product attributes such as prices, flavors, nicotine content, and warning messages on these choices. The findings reveal that prices and flavors significantly influence smokers' preferences. Specifically, higher HTP prices tend to drive smokers back to combustible cigarettes and discourage them from choosing to quit. Additionally, there is some evidence that consumers prefer HTPs with a wide variety of flavors. Meanwhile, hypothetical policy simulations that change warning messages or nicotine content do not affect consumers' choices.