CBDCs, Payment Firms, and Geopolitics
Working Paper 32857
DOI 10.3386/w32857
Issue Date
We analyze the effect of a major central bank digital currency (CBDC) – the digital euro – on the payment industry to find remarkably heterogeneous effects. Stock prices of U.S. payment firms decrease, while stock prices of European payment firms increase in response to positive announcements on the digital euro. Bank stocks do not react. We estimate a loss in market capitalization of USD 127 billion for U.S. payment firms, vis-à-vis a gain of USD 23 billion for European payment firms. Our results emphasize the medium-of-exchange function of CBDCs and point to a novel geopolitical dimension of CBDCs: enhanced autonomy in payments.
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Copy CitationTobias Berg, Jan Keil, Felix Martini, and Manju Puri, "CBDCs, Payment Firms, and Geopolitics," NBER Working Paper 32857 (2024), https://doi.org/10.3386/w32857.