The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Explained, Evaluated, Replaced

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are perhaps the most influential economic policy analyses today. My paper evaluates their development, natural associations, logical consequences, and economic identification. All five SSP baseline scenarios are predicting scenarios that historical time-series analysis would consider empirically highly implausible. This alternative — econometric time-series analysis based on worldwide IPAT components — suggests alternative emission scenarios, mapping into expected radiative forcing of about RCP 6.5, with a reasonable plausibility range from RCP 4.5 to RCP 7.0.