Elite Colleges as Engines of Upward Mobility: Evidence from Colombia’s Ser Pilo Paga

We study the impact of elite colleges on upward mobility. An unprecedented financial aid reform in Colombia dramatically increased the enrollment of academically successful students of low socioeconomic status (SES) in high-quality universities. We leverage the policy’s stringent eligibility criteria and population-wide administrative microdata, using regression discontinuity (RD) and difference-in-difference (DD) methodologies to estimate causal effects on later-life educational and labor-market outcomes. The program notably boosted attendance of low-SES high-achievers at colleges with high value-added, increasing their returns to ability. Low-SES students are more likely to obtain bachelor’s degrees from these colleges, especially in STEM fields, and they achieve higher scores in the college graduation exam. Nine years later, their earnings are 18 log points higher, with a greater likelihood of being in the top 1%, reflecting increased upper-tail mobility. The policy successfully narrowed socioeconomic gaps in college quality, attainment, skill development, earnings, and the returns to ability.