Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?
Amid public skepticism about trade, we investigate whether evidence-based information—a concise statement of a research finding—can shape preferences towards trade policy. Across survey experiments conducted over 2018-2022 on U.S. general population samples, we consistently uncover a “backfire effect”: Information that highlights benefits from trade (job gains in productive sectors or lower consumer prices) induces protectionist policy choices, particularly among Republicans. We interpret this finding through the lens of a model of prior-biased belief updating. Averting this backfire effect will require addressing the prior beliefs—specifically, over the impact of trade on jobs and trade relations with China—that we find prevalent among respondents inclined toward protectionism.
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