We thank Brent Neiman, Sebastian Graves, Robert Kollmann, Werner Roeger, Narayana Kocherlakota, and David Lopez-Salido for helpful discussions, and seminar participants at Duke University, Boston University, Erasmus University, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, the Einaudi Institute, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the NBER conference on “The Rise of Global Supply Chains” (December 2021), the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy Conference (May 2022), the CEPR/EC/EER conference on “The COVID-shock and the New Macroeconomic Landscape” (October 2022), the BOJ-CEPR 7th International Macroeconomics and Finance Conference (March 2023), the Society for Economic Dynamics Annual Meeting (June 2023), the NBER Summer Institute Monetary Economics meeting (July 2023), and the CEPR Salento Macro Meetings (July 2023) for comments. We especially thank Diego Anzoategui, who assisted us during intermediate stages of this research. This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 18STCBT00001-03-00. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-2315629. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Finally, the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.