Input Subsidies and the Destruction of Natural Capital: Chinese Distant Water Fishing

Input subsidies in natural resource sectors are widely believed to cause depletion of the natural capital on which those sectors rely. But identification and data challenges have stymied attempts to empirically estimate the causal effect of subsidies on resource extraction. China’s fishing fleet is the world’s largest, and in 2016 the government changed its fuel subsidy policy for distant water vessels to one that increases with predetermined vessel characteristics. The policy features 25 thresholds at which subsidies discontinuously increase. Using a regression discontinuity design, we estimate that a 1% increase in fuel subsidy increases hours of fishing by 2.2%. Reducing Chinese distant water fuel subsidies by 50% could eliminate biological overfishing in several ocean regions.