Will the Developing World’s Growing Middle Class Support Low Carbon Policies?

As billions of people in the developing world seek to increase their living standards, their aspirations pose a challenge to global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The emerging middle class are buying and operating energy intensive durables ranging from vehicles to air conditioners to computers. Owners of these durables represent an interest group with a stake in opposing carbon pricing. The political economy of encouraging middle class support for carbon pricing hinges on offsetting its perceived negative income effects. Rising environmentalism in the developing world could also increase support for credible GHG reduction policy. We quantify these effects as we estimate Engel curves of durables ownership, compare the grid’s carbon intensity by nation and study the demographic correlates of support for prioritizing environmental protection.