The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location
Do basketball players exhibit a hot hand? Results from controlled shooting situations suggest the answer is yes, while results from in-game shooting are mixed. Are the differing results because a hot hand is only present in similar shots or because testing for the hot hand in game situations is difficult? Combining repeated shots in a location and shots across locations, the NBA 3-Point Contests mimics game situations without many of the confounding factors. Using data on the 1986-2019 contests, we find a hot hand, but only within shot locations. Shooting streaks increase a hot hand only if a player makes his previous shot and only within locations. Even making three shots in a row has no effect on making the next shot if a player moves locations. Our results suggest that any hot hand in basketball is only present in extremely similar shooting situations and likely not in the run-of-play.
Non-Technical Summaries
- In the NBA 3-Point Contest, a player who successfully makes a shot is more likely to make his next one when it is from the same...
Published Versions
Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2024. "The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location," Journal of Sports Economics, vol 25(3), pages 283-321.