Recovery from the COVID-19 Recession: Uneven Effects among Young Workers?

In this paper, we examine the labor market recovery from the COVID-19 recession and test for effects of termination of pandemic unemployment insurance programs among 15-24-year-olds. We use data from the January 2016-October 2022 Current Population Survey. Using regression-based methods, we show that while 15-19-year-olds experienced a brisk, full recovery in labor market outcomes from the COVID-19 recession, the recovery was sluggish and incomplete among 20-24-year-olds, with some work outcomes lagging below pre-pandemic norms well into 2022. Termination of pandemic UI programs led to increased work hours and full-time employment among 20-24-year-olds but did not have these effects among 15-19-year-olds.