The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes

We thank the editor, three referees, Kris Boudt, Frank Diebold, Lukasz Drozd, Jan Eeckhout, Lutz Kilian, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, and Christian Wolf for useful comments. Some of the ideas in this paper came out of previous work with Chad Jones. John Cochrane was the first to point out to us the potential key importance of time-varying parameters in epidemiological models. An earlier version of this paper circulated as “Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs.” Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. No statements here should be treated as legal advice.

• March 23, 2021