Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity: New Evidence from One Million Documents

We have received helpful comments from Nick Bloom, Cheng Chen, Steve Davis, Doireann Fitzgerald, Davide Furceri, Tarek Hassan, E. Han Kim, Yao Lu, Indrajit Mitra, John Rogers, Simon Sheng, Jagadeesh Sivadasan, Steven Terry, and Toni Whited; our discussants Scott Baker, Erica X. N. Li and Xinyan Yan; and seminar participants at Michigan, RIETI (Japan), the Conference on Uncertainty and Economic Activity at Renmin University, NBER Summer Institute, Stanford SITE, Stanford Hoover, CAED, Econometric Society Summer Meeting, Tsinghua PBC, and CICF. This research was conducted while the authors were Special Sworn Status researchers at the Michigan Census Research Data Center. Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. We thank Clint Carter for assistance and timely disclosure review of all results. Rohit Singla at Michigan provided invaluable assistance with computing resources. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.