Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception

This work was supported in whole by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Grant OPP1171956. Under the grant conditions of the Foundation, a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Generic License has already been assigned to the Author Accepted Manuscript version that might arise from this submission. The findings and conclusions contained within are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect positions or policies of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. IRB Number 59/CNBS/2017 approved by the Mozambican Health Ministry’s National Bioethics Committee (CNBS) on September 22 2017, updated December 14 2017. We thank Sergio Chicumbe and Acácio Sabonete at the Instituto Nacional de Saúde, Páscoa Wate at the Ministry of Health, the district health authorities of Maputo City, Maputo Province, and Gaza Province as well as Marina Bassi, Humberto Cossa, and Peter Holland at the Human Development division of the Maputo World Bank office for their support. Thanks go to Yolanda Chongo, Andreas Kokott, Gisela Lourenço, Duelo Macia, and Alfredo Matusse at Intercampus for excellent fieldwork. Manuel Antonio Sanchez Garcia provided outstanding research assistance. For useful comments on the paper or on our initial design, we thank Adeline Delavande, Alessandra Voena, Debraj Ray, Johannes Abeler, Karlijn Morsink, Nicolas Ziebarth, Pascaline Dupas, Matthew Wiswall, Rachel Cassidy, Victor Pouliquen, three anonymous referees, one anonymous associate editor, Michael Jansson in his role of editor, and audiences at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ECARES), Tinbergen Institute, University of Pavia, Stanford University, University of Exeter, CREST, Arizona Worskhop on Subjective Expectations, 2020 Essen Health Conference, Population Association of America 2021 Annual Meeting, 2021 SEHO Conference, NBER Summer Institute Development Economics 2021, CEPR/TCD Workshop in Development Economics 2021, and Royal Holloway Workshop on “Global Health, Environment and Labour”. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

• May 26, 2020