Rising Policy Uncertainty

Prepared in connection with the Werner Sichel Lecture at Western Michigan University. This paper draws on my research with Scott Baker, Nick Bloom and others in Arbatli et al. (2019), Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), Baker, Bloom, Davis and Kost (2019), Baker, Bloom, Davis and Sammon (2019), Davis (2016) and Davis, Liu and Sheng (2019). I gratefully acknowledge financial support from the U.S. National Science Foundation and the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.