Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World

While theoretical models consistently predict that government spending shocks should lead to appreciation of the domestic currency, empirical studies have been stubbornly finding depreciation. Using daily data on U.S. defense spending (announced and actual payments), we document that the dollar immediately and strongly appreciates after announcements about future government spending. In contrast, actual payments lead to no discernible effect on the exchange rate. We examine responses of other variables at the daily frequency and explore how the response of the exchange rate to fiscal shocks varies over the business cycle as well as at the zero lower bound and in normal times.