The authors acknowledge the financial support of the Global Interdependence Center and are grateful to Stefania Albanesi, Pierre Jaillet, Aysegul Sahin and seminar participants at the New York Fed and Global Interdependence Center Conference for comments. We thank Peter Ireland for sharing his data. The views in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Wells Fargo. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
John Silvia
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