2022, Economics of Social Security Panel, "Long-Term Trends in Labor Productivity and Wages"

The growth rate of labor productivity is a key determinant of the long-run level of earnings. The level and distribution of earnings are in turn key influences on the revenue collected by the payroll tax that finances the US Social Security program. At the July 2022 Economics of Social Security meeting hosted by the NBER, three panelists -- Francine Blau of Cornell University and NBER, Stephen Goss of the US Social Security Administration, and Charles Jones of Stanford University and NBER -- examined historical trends in the level and distribution of earnings as well as the potential impact of changes in the rate of economic growth, and the gender composition of the labor force, on future payroll tax revenues.

Alexander M. Gelber and James M. Poterba, Organizers

Summer Institute 2022 Economics of Social Security Conference

Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant #G-2019-12304, the National Science Foundation grant #1851757, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation grant #20221137, and the Koret Foundation grant #22-0705