Risk and Risk Management in the Agricultural Economy

November 21, 2025 — Cambridge, MA

Agriculture is an intrinsically risky business. Weather, pests, and unpredictable market conditions all contribute to uncertainty in the returns to farming and animal husbandry. There are also substantial and distinct risks in other parts of the agriculture sector, such as those faced by firms that develop hybrid crop varieties, new tools, and technologies to advance agricultural productivity. A wide range of public and private institutions have arisen to insure agricultural businesses from some of these risks. These include futures markets the allow farmers to sell crops at a known price prior to harvest, crop insurance that protects against unusually poor yields, joint ventures that enable farmers to share risks, and government credit programs that finance capital and other critical inputs on favorable terms.  Risk-sharing institutions are endogenous, responding to the nature of risks and the broader institutional environment. 

To promote research on the risks that are borne by individuals and firms in the agricultural sector, and on the tools that are available to manage these risks, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with the support of the Economic Research Service at the US Department of Agriculture, will convene a research conference in Cambridge, MA on Friday, November 21, 2025. The conference will be organized by Barry Goodwin (North Carolina State University) and Tatyana Deryugina (University of Illinois and NBER).  

Potential topics of interest include, but are not limited to: 

  • Economic and behavioral factors that influence farmers’ adoption of risk-mitigation strategies such as participation in crop insurance programs.
  • The role of technological innovations, such as precision agriculture and the development of drought-resistant crops, in reducing agricultural risk.
  • The incentive effects of crop insurance on farmer decisions such as crop choice, irrigation, diversification, and technology adoption, and the effect of subsidized crop insurance and other programs in smoothing the income stream of farmers, landowners, and workers in the agricultural sector.
  • The effects of government regulations and risk-sharing institutions on incentives of agricultural producers, and the role of risks associated with shifts in these policies and institutions.
  • The role of water markets in raising or reducing risk in the agricultural sector.
  • The economic incidence of risk-sharing programs: How much of the program value accrues to farmers, consumers, and agricultural land-owners? 
  • Risk-sharing in agricultural supply chains.
  • Measurement of the risk profile associated with different agricultural technologies.
  • The value of timely and high quality information that affects farming decisions.
  • The use of market-based risk management mechanisms, such as futures and options contracts.
  • The link between reinsurance markets and insurance products available to producers in the agricultural sector.
  • The impact of extreme weather events on risk profiles in the agricultural sector and on the cost of insurance products.
  • Econometric representations of agricultural risks and their impacts on production and marketing decisions.
  • The extent to which ad hoc and standing disaster relief programs such as FEMA provide risk mitigation.
  • Risk management policies and the 2025 Farm Bill.

The organizers will consider submissions of complete, or nearly complete, papers that will be ready to present by November 2025. They welcome empirical and theoretical research, as well as papers by scholars who are early in their careers and who are not NBER affiliates. If any members of the research team have ties to the agricultural industry or other potential conflicts of interest, those ties should be disclosed on the first page of the submission. The program will prioritize research on the US food and farm economy. 

To be considered for inclusion on the program, upload papers papers by midnight (EDT) on Tuesday, August 12, 2025.

Please feel free to share this call for papers widely with any researchers who might be working on projects that are suitable for presentation. 

Please do not submit papers that have been accepted for publication and will be published by November 2025, and be aware that NBER papers may not make policy recommendations or offer normative judgements on policy. Authors chosen to present papers will be notified in early September. The NBER will cover hotel and economy-class conference travel for up to two authors per paper. There may be an option for publishing the papers presented at this meeting in an edited NBER proceedings volume or a special issue of a refereed journal. Questions about this conference may be addressed to confer@nber.org.