Fertility and Declining Population Growth in High-Income Countries

Fertility rates have been below replacement level in select high-income countries for decades. Recent trends in the United States suggests the US experience might not be far behind. The fertility rate in the United States has been falling almost continuously since 2007 and the US total fertility rate is now considerably below replacement level. A below replacement level fertility rate implies falling population growth, absent increased immigration. There are various potential explanations for the trend of low and declining fertility in high-income countries, and many potential consequences, including lower economic growth, strained social insurance systems, and changes in family and societal arrangements. 

To promote research on these issues and draw together a diverse set of scholars from across subfields, the NBER will convene a conference on the causes and consequences of low fertility rates. The conference will be held in person on May 22-23, 2025 and will be organized by NBER researchers Melissa S. Kearney (University of Maryland) and Phillip Levine (Wellesley College). Research on any issue pertaining to the economic and social effects of declining fertility are welcome. Some topics of interest include, but are not limited to:

1. What are the causes of the widespread decline in fertility in high-income countries?
2. What do recent trends and patterns in fertility imply about demographic trends going forward?
3. What is the impact of pro-natalist or pro-family policies – such as paid family leave, subsidized childcare, or child tax credits – on fertility rates? Relatedly, what is the impact of various child-related costs – such as housing, childcare, or earnings reductions – on fertility rates?
4. What is the role of peer effects, social norms, religious observance, and institutional arrangements in driving birth rates? 
5. What is the likely impact of low total fertility and declining population growth on economic growth and GDP per capita?
6. What is the likely impact of a low fertility rate and the resulting population aging on government spending and revenues?
7. What other economic and social implications are associated with a declining fertility rate and lower population growth?
8. How will the geographic distribution of a shrinking population affect local economic activity and the well-being of residents in different locations?
9. To what extent can immigration and productivity investments be relied upon to address these demographic challenges? 
10. What are the implications for the environment and climate of slower US population growth? To what extent has concern regarding climate change affected lifetime fertility outcomes?
11. What survey evidence exists regarding people’s aspirations and plans about future fertility, or attitudes about their realized fertility, and what role do various factors play in shaping those views?

The NBER welcomes submissions of both empirical and theoretical research on all aspects of declining fertility in high-income countries. We welcome papers by scholars who are early in their careers, who are not NBER affiliates, and who are from groups that are under-represented in the economics profession. To be considered for inclusion on the program, papers must be uploaded by midnight (EST), January 31, 2025 via the following link.