NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, volume 33

This volume contains six studies on current topics in macroeconomics. Michael Woodford shows that while the assumption of rational expectations is unrealistic, a finite-horizon forward planning model can generate results similar to those of a rational expectations equilibrium. Andrew Atkeson, Adrien d’Avernas, Andrea Eisfeldt, and Pierre-Olivier Weill investigate whether the US financial sector is safer than it was before the financial crisis and examine the ratio of market-to-book values of banks. Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman study alternative ways to allocate output that is not associated with either capital or labor, what they call “factorless income.” Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp, and Venky Venkateswaran argue that the financial crisis increased perceived tail risk and led to higher demand for safe, risk-free, liquid assets. They also explore the propagation of large, rare shocks. Kerwin Kofi Charles, Erik Hurst, and Mariel Schwartz document substantial changes in the manufacturing sector and the decline in employment among prime-aged Americans since 2000, and assess the relative effects of trade, and worker health and mobility. Omar Barbiero, Emmanuel Farhi, Gita Gopinath, and Oleg Itskhoki analyze the dynamic macroeconomic effects of border adjustment taxes, considering them both in the context of corporate tax reform and as a part of the value-added tax.