The Ebbing Tide: How Will Higher Education Adapt to Demographic Change?

Since 2010, postsecondary enrollment in the United States has fallen by 12.5 percent, the first sustained decrease in the postwar era. The decline coincides with a modest decline in the number of US residents of traditional college-going age. This paper presents evidence linking cross-sectional variation in state-level demographic variables to enrollment trends at a sample of public baccalaureate institutions. The link between demography and enrollment is more pronounced at less research-intensive institutions. Current demographic conditions forecast accelerated enrollment declines through the mid-2030s. Given evidence that states respond to declining enrollment by increasing per-student subsidies, these conditions may force difficult decisions in the coming decade.