National Bureau of Economic Research
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The Dollar’s Evolving Role in International Bond Markets
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International debt securities (IDS)—bonds issued, listed, or governed outside the issuer’s home country—had a total value of $2 billion in 1970 but grew to $30 trillion by 2024. While the dollar has been the largest denomination currency for IDS since 2000, its dominance has fluctuated considerably, even as possible alternatives like the euro, created in 1999, and the Chinese renminbi, whose internationalization began in 2010, have emerged. In Dollarization Waves: New Evidence from a Comprehensive International Bond Database (NBER Working Paper 34942), Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Eswar S. Prasad, Előd Takáts, and Judit Temesvary use a dataset compiled...
From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries
Worker Voice and Firm Governance
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What happens when workers get a formal seat at the table in corporate governance? In many European countries, laws require that worker representatives serve on company boards and participate in management decisions, a shared governance system known as codetermination. Germany's version, dating to the postwar era in its current form, is perhaps the most prominent: workers elect representatives to corporate supervisory boards, and establishment-level works councils participate in day-to-day workplace decisions. During its long history, codetermination has regularly attracted attention in countries that typically exclusively rely on shareholder control, such as the United States or the United Kingdom. The central question for economists is whether giving workers formal representation in firm governance meaningfully affects wages,…
From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship
Mixed Immigrant-Native Founding Teams Excel
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Roughly one-quarter of new employer businesses in the United States are started by immigrants. Immigrant inventors have been responsible for approximately 23 percent of US patents produced since 1976 despite making up only 16 percent of the total US-based inventor population. Yet immigrant entrepreneurs usually do not build companies in isolation—many cofound startups alongside US-born entrepreneurs. In Native-Immigrant Entrepreneurial Synergies (NBER Working Paper 33804), Zhao Jin, Amir Kermani, and Timothy McQuade examine whether startups cofounded by immigrant and native entrepreneurs outperform those with founders from exclusively one...
From the NBER Bulletin on Health
Immunotherapy Increases the Cost of Cancer Care but Reduces Mortality
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Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are immunotherapy drugs that mobilize the patient’s immune system to detect and attack cancer cells. They are considered a breakthrough development in cancer care, but are very expensive, with a full course of treatment costing more than $150,000 per patient. In The Impact of Immunotherapy on Reductions in Cancer Mortality: Evidence from Medicare (NBER Working Paper 34317), Danea Horn, Abby E. Alpert, Mark Duggan, and Mireille Jacobson use Medicare claims data to evaluate the impact of the first ICIs on healthcare use, costs, and mortality among beneficiaries diagnosed with...
Featured Working Papers
In the US, both defense and nondefense discretionary spending as a share of GDP have remained roughly stable for several decades. If this pattern persists, it will translate into federal deficits larger than official CBO projections by 2036 of roughly 1.5 percent of GDP, according to Karen Dynan, Douglas Elmendorf, and Theresa Gullo.
Housing capital is substantially more persistent across generations than earnings, and only half of its persistence is due to persistence in earnings, according to Ariel J. Binder, Max Risch, and John L. Voorheis.
Ilse Lindenlaub, Ryungha Oh, Maria Alejandra Rodriguez, and Laura Veldkamp find that, in Germany, standard AI-exposure measures explain only 14 percent of cross-occupation variation in AI adoption, while a new index based on estimates of AI’s comparative productivity advantage relative to workers explains nearly 60 percent.
Raymond Fisman, Aron Malatinszky, and Eyub Yegen study nearly 100,000 Freedom of Information Act requests between 2010 and 2024 and estimate that governments in high-corruption US states are 30 percent more likely to reject or delay requests in the months before an election compared to other periods.
The long-running trend of health care costs growing faster than the economy has slowed: US health care spending in 2024 was 15 percent below forecasts made in 2010—nearly $1 trillion less. David M. Cutler and Lev R. Klarnet attribute this to cost-saving technological innovation, improved population health, reduced utilization, greater long-run supply elasticity, and slower price growth.
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