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Economic Growth, Cultural Traditions, and Declining Fertility fiure

Economic Growth, Cultural Traditions, and Declining Fertility

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When nations experience rapid economic modernization, traditional family values can clash with new social realities and result in sharply declining birth rates. This insight helps to explain why some developed countries have much lower current fertility rates than others, despite having had higher rates in the recent past.

In Babies and the Macroeconomy (NBER Working Paper 33311), Claudia Goldin examines fertility patterns across 12 developed nations. She divides the countries into two groups: one, comprising Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden, the UK, and the US, that experienced relatively steady economic growth throughout the twentieth century, and the other, Greece, Italy, Japan, Korea,…

Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 6

Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 6

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Matthew J. KotchenTatyana Deryugina, and Catherine D. Wolfram, editors.

This volume presents six new papers on environmental and energy economics and policy. 

From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries

Gender, Work, and Family: Progress and Ongoing Challenges Figure

Gender, Work, and Family: Progress and Ongoing Challenges

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How do societal norms, public policies, and economic forces shape outcomes for men and women? My recent work, with several collaborators, addresses how gender disparities in labor markets influence individual opportunities, household decisions, and overall economic productivity. It brings together insights from long-term historical trends and the extensive gender literature to examine both progress and persistent challenges to gender equality...

From the NBER Bulletin on Health

Additional Educational Attainment Reduces Alzheimer’s Risk figure

Additional Educational Attainment Reduces Alzheimer’s Risk

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Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD) represent a growing global health crisis, with cases projected to reach 131.5 million by 2050. The economic burden is substantial: In 2020, ADRD cost the United States $305 billion, with forecasts suggesting a threefold increase over the next 35 years in the absence of effective interventions. While previous research has associated lower educational attainment with increased ADRD risk, establishing causality has proved challenging due to potential confounding factors including childhood circumstances, socioeconomic background, and genetic predisposition.

In Education and Dementia Risk (NBER Working Paper 33430), researchers Silvia H. BarcellosLeandro CarvalhoKenneth LangaSneha Nimmagadda, and Patrick Turley leverage a natural experiment to investigate...

From the NBER Bulletin on Retirement and Disability

Disability Benefits, Aggregate Economic Conditions, and Earnings Figure

Disability Benefits, Aggregate Economic Conditions, and Earnings

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In How Do Economic Conditions Affect Earnings and Return to Disability Programs for Beneficiaries Whose Benefits Were Terminated? (NBER RDRC Paper NB22-03), Jeffrey HemmeterKathleen Mullen, and Stephanie Rennane find that individuals whose benefits end due to medical improvement during an economic downturn earn less in the short run and are more likely to reapply for benefits within five years than those...

From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship

Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the US figure

Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the US

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Immigrants to the US are more entrepreneurial than the native population and overrepresented among high-growth startups and venture-backed tech firms. In Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda (NBER Working Paper 32400), Saheel ChodavadiaSari Pekkala KerrWilliam Kerr, and Louis Maiden use business surveys and administrative employment records to provide new evidence on the prevalence and predictors of immigrant...

Featured Working Papers

Although emergency department data in the US indicate that reported suicidal behavior in children rose 233 percent from 2006 to 2021, Han ChoiAdriana Corredor-WaldronJanet Currie, and Chris Felton note that these data have been affected by changing conventions about screening, defining, and coding of mental illness. They estimate that the rise in mental health disorders is between 30 and 50 percent. 

A 10 μg/m3 increase in daily PM2.5 pollution exposure is associated with a 5.7 percent increase in full-day student absences and a 28 percent increase in discipline-related referrals to school officials at a large urban school district in California, with effects primarily driven by low-income, Black, Hispanic, and younger students, according to Sarah ChungClaudia Persico, and Jing Liu.

During the Age of Mass Migration in the late 1800s and early 1900s, persistently high fertility rates across Europe created surplus labor that could find better opportunities in the New World. Guillaume Blanc and Romain Wacziarg argue that these migrations, by relieving demographic pressures, accelerated the transition to modern growth.

Gillian BrunetEric Hilt, and Matthew S. Jaremski find that households residing in counties that had high World War I Liberty Bond participation had greater stock and bond ownership rates in later decades, and held more favorable opinions towards retirement saving and stock investment. 

A study of promotion of academic economists by Donna K. GintherShulamit Kahn, and Daria Milakhina finds persistent gender penalties, not explained by productivity, in promotion to both associate and full professorship.

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Supported by the US Department of Homeland Security through a subaward from the Cross-Border Threat Screening and Supply Chain Defense (CBTS), a Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence, at Texas A&M University grant #...
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Supported by the US Department of Transportation through an interagency agreement with the National Science Foundation grant #2315269
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SlidesSupported by the Social Security Administration grant #RDR2300006
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Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant #G-2023-19618, Microsoft , and TD Management and Data Analytics Lab
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