National Bureau of Economic Research
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Andrea Eisfeldt to Co-Direct Asset Pricing Program
news article
Research Associate Andrea Eisfeldt, who holds the Laurence D. and Lori W. Fink Endowed Chair in Finance at the University of California, Los Angeles Anderson School of Business, has agreed to join Sydney Ludvigson as co-director of the NBER Asset Pricing Program. Eisfeldt’s research ranges widely and includes important contributions on market liquidity, the operation of over-the-counter markets, the role of intangibles in asset pricing, and the interplay between macroeconomics and finance. She is the Vice President-Elect of the Western Finance Association and Vice President of the American Finance Association.
Besides Asset Pricing, Eisfeldt is also affiliated with the NBER’s Corporate Finance and Economic...
A research summary from the monthly NBER Digest
Smoking Patterns and the Widening US Mortality Gap
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Over the past three decades, the life expectancy gap between Americans with and without college degrees widened from 2.6 years in 1992 to 6.3 years. At the same time, geographic differences in mortality have increased dramatically. Rural counties that once enjoyed lower mortality rates than urban areas now experience approximately 50 percent higher death rates. In Explaining the Widening Divides in US Midlife Mortality: Is There a Smoking Gun? (NBER Working Paper 34553), Christopher L. Foote, Ellen Meara, Jonathan S. Skinner, and Luke R. Stewart examine three...
Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 7
news article
Matthew J. Kotchen, Tatyana Deryugina, and Catherine D. Wolfram, editors.
This volume presents six new papers on environmental and energy economics and policy.
Judson Boomhower and Meredith Fowlie illustrate the distributional consequences of improving risk pricing efficiency in wildfire insurance markets.
Claire Brunel and Arik Levinson develop a conceptual framework for understanding the economic and environmental consequences of taxes on imports of goods based on their carbon content...
From the NBER Bulletin on Health
Immunotherapy Increases the Cost of Cancer Care but Reduces Mortality
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Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are immunotherapy drugs that mobilize the patient’s immune system to detect and attack cancer cells. They are considered a breakthrough development in cancer care, but are very expensive, with a full course of treatment costing more than $150,000 per patient. In The Impact of Immunotherapy on Reductions in Cancer Mortality: Evidence from Medicare (NBER Working Paper 34317), Danea Horn, Abby E. Alpert, Mark Duggan, and Mireille Jacobson use Medicare claims data to evaluate the impact of the first ICIs on healthcare use, costs, and mortality among beneficiaries diagnosed with...
From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries
Quantitative Trade Policy in a Changing World
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Over the past three decades trade policy has profoundly shaped the structure of production, employment, and welfare across countries. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the recent resurgence of tariff protectionism illustrate how deeply globalization and policy choices are intertwined. Evaluating their effects requires quantitative frameworks that capture how shocks to both technology and policy propagate through supply chains, labor markets, and international linkages.
Our research develops tractable general equilibrium models to quantify how shocks such as tariffs affect economies—both in the aggregate and across workers, regions, and sectors. These frameworks extend the Ricardian model of trade to include…
From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship
Underwriting Based on Cash Flow Helps Younger Entrepreneurs Access Credit
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Younger entrepreneurs are disadvantaged in small business loan markets because lenders rely heavily on personal credit scores, which favor long histories of repaying debt. In Modernizing Access to Credit for Younger Entrepreneurs: From FICO to Cash Flow (NBER Working Paper 33367), researchers Christopher M. Hair, Sabrina T. Howell, Mark J. Johnson, and Siena Matsumoto document this fact and show that younger entrepreneurs benefit from underwriting that augments personal credit scores (like FICO) with cash flow data. They analyze comprehensive…
Featured Working Papers
A 10 percent probability of losing two years of patent exclusivity reduces average project value by 6.5 percent, while a 30 percent probability of a 25 percent price-control-driven cash flow cut reduces it by 16.1 percent, implying a long-run R&D spending contraction of between 10 and 25 percent, according to Teresa Corzo Santamaria, Jose Portela, and Eduardo S. Schwartz.
Applying a genetically modified biofertilizer to farms in Kenya increased maize yields by up to 110 percent for farms with adequate soil nutrients, at a cost well below that of synthetic fertilizers needed to achieve equivalent gains, according to Tavneet Suri, Petar Madjarac, and Robert D. van der Hilst.
A doubling of oil prices reduces long-run economic output by up to 8.6 percent, roughly three times the loss from an equivalent mineral price increase, because oil raises operating costs immediately while critical minerals affect the economy more gradually through investment and the external balance sheet, according to Adrien Concordel, Phuong Ho, and Christopher R. Knittel.
In a survey of expected expenses and taxes, Edward Freeland, Andrew Garin, and Dmitri K. Koustas find that on average, workers expected to take home 4.2 percent more as freelancers than as W-2 employees with the same gross pay, but after receiving personalized estimates of higher expenses and taxes faced by the self-employed, they revised their expectations to take home 13.4 percent less.
Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher find that areas more exposed to import competition from NAFTA experienced a 2.1 percent rise in mortality among adults aged 25–55, with a 7.3 percent increase for workers who lost their jobs due to the trade agreement.
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