National Bureau of Economic Research

John V. Leahy and Valerie A. Ramey, editors.

This fortieth volume of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual includes four new papers on contemporary macroeconomic challenges and methodologies. Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger examine how hegemonic powers use economic policies as tools of…

The French Revolution dismantled the ancien régime and redefined the relationship between state power and citizens. Historians have long emphasized the role of the monarchy's extractive and deeply unequal fiscal system in contributing to the revolutionary crisis. The pre-revolutionary tax system largely exempted the clergy and nobility, while the Third Estate, which included about 98 percent of the population, bore nearly all of the tax burden. By the 1780s, taxation absorbed between 25 and 30 percent of average income, and sharp disparities across regions meant that otherwise similar areas faced markedly different tax burdens. 

In Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution (NBER Working Paper 34816), Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau, and Marco Tabellini study how taxation...

The Development Economics (DEV) program was launched in 2012 and has 190 affiliated researchers. The success the program is enjoying today is in very large part thanks to Duncan Thomas, who led the program for its first six years. A unique aspect of the program is its close connections with BREAD, the Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development, which is an independent group with worldwide membership. Our fall program meeting is held jointly with BREAD every other year.

Development economics is, broadly speaking, the study of two questions. First, why are some countries poor while other countries are wealthy?…

The US capital gains tax is realization based, which means that taxes are due when appreciated assets are sold. Critics of this approach argue that it allows asset holders, such as corporate founders, to defer their tax obligations, sometimes indefinitely. An alternative approach, taxing gains on accrual, would require asset holders to value their assets periodically and to pay tax on the gain since the last valuation. Critics of this approach argue that it could force founders to surrender ownership stakes just to pay tax bills, potentially discouraging startup formation. In Dilution vs. Risk Taking: Capital Gains Taxes and Entrepreneurship (NBER Working Paper 34512), Eduardo M. Azevedo, Florian Scheuer, Kent Smetters, and Min Yang examine how shifting from realization-based to accrual-based capital gains...

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are immunotherapy drugs that mobilize the patient’s immune system to detect and attack cancer cells. They are considered a breakthrough development in cancer care, but are very expensive, with a full course of treatment costing more than $150,000 per patient. In The Impact of Immunotherapy on Reductions in Cancer Mortality: Evidence from Medicare (NBER Working Paper 34317), Danea Horn, Abby E. Alpert, Mark Duggan, and Mireille Jacobson use Medicare claims data to evaluate the impact of the first ICIs on healthcare use, costs, and mortality among beneficiaries diagnosed with...