National Bureau of Economic Research
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What Happens When the Flow of Immigrant Workers Suddenly Stops?
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South Korea is one of the fastest-aging countries in the world. Its fertility rate, which has been below replacement level since the 1970s, dropped below one after 2020, producing a sharp contraction in the supply of young workers willing to take physically demanding, low-skilled jobs. To address persistent labor shortages in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and fisheries, the government introduced the Employment Permit System (EPS) in 2004, a guest worker program allowing low-skilled workers from 16 Asian countries to fill entry-level positions.
In 2019, roughly 276,000 EPS workers were employed across the country, with approximately three-quarters concentrated in manufacturing. They were also overwhelmingly assigned simple, repetitive tasks: employers reported that 79 percent of EPS workers performed tasks…
From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries
Worker Voice and Firm Governance
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What happens when workers get a formal seat at the table in corporate governance? In many European countries, laws require that worker representatives serve on company boards and participate in management decisions, a shared governance system known as codetermination. Germany's version, dating to the postwar era in its current form, is perhaps the most prominent: workers elect representatives to corporate supervisory boards, and establishment-level works councils participate in day-to-day workplace decisions. During its long history, codetermination has regularly attracted attention in countries that typically exclusively rely on shareholder control, such as the United States or the United Kingdom. The central question for economists is whether giving workers formal representation in firm governance meaningfully affects wages,…
From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship
Mixed Immigrant-Native Founding Teams Excel
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Roughly one-quarter of new employer businesses in the United States are started by immigrants. Immigrant inventors have been responsible for approximately 23 percent of US patents produced since 1976 despite making up only 16 percent of the total US-based inventor population. Yet immigrant entrepreneurs usually do not build companies in isolation—many cofound startups alongside US-born entrepreneurs. In Native-Immigrant Entrepreneurial Synergies (NBER Working Paper 33804), Zhao Jin, Amir Kermani, and Timothy McQuade examine whether startups cofounded by immigrant and native entrepreneurs outperform those with founders from exclusively one...
From the NBER Bulletin on Health
Immunotherapy Increases the Cost of Cancer Care but Reduces Mortality
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Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are immunotherapy drugs that mobilize the patient’s immune system to detect and attack cancer cells. They are considered a breakthrough development in cancer care, but are very expensive, with a full course of treatment costing more than $150,000 per patient. In The Impact of Immunotherapy on Reductions in Cancer Mortality: Evidence from Medicare (NBER Working Paper 34317), Danea Horn, Abby E. Alpert, Mark Duggan, and Mireille Jacobson use Medicare claims data to evaluate the impact of the first ICIs on healthcare use, costs, and mortality among beneficiaries diagnosed with...
Featured Working Papers
The long-running trend of health care costs growing faster than the economy has slowed: US health care spending in 2024 was 15 percent below forecasts made in 2010—nearly $1 trillion less. David M. Cutler and Lev R. Klarnet attribute this to cost-saving technological innovation, improved population health, reduced utilization, greater long-run supply elasticity, and slower price growth.
Data from the state of Wisconsin suggest that the federal Work Opportunity Tax Credit—the largest US employer-side wage subsidy program—has no meaningful effect on hiring, earnings, or other labor market outcomes for targeted workers. An estimated 96 percent of subsidized hires being inframarginal workers they would have hired anyway, according to Manisha Jain, Corina Mommaerts, and Jeffrey Weaver.
Tacit collusion, existing-creditor blocking power, and market concentration, all of which can create lender market power, explain 533 basis points of risk-adjusted spreads in the debtor-in-possession loan market and 300 basis points in the highly speculative loan market, according to Winston Wei Dou, Wei Wang, and Wenyu Wang.
Scott A. Brave, Erin E. Crust, Stefano Eusepi, Bart Hobijn, and Ayşegül Şahin construct four narrative factors related to the US labor market—labor demand, long-run labor supply, short-run labor supply, and matching efficiency—by analyzing 94 monthly indicators spanning 1960–2026. The four factors can account for 77 percent of the common variation in labor market measures.
Patents per R&D dollar have risen roughly 50 percent since 1977 while the elasticity of patents to R&D inputs has nearly doubled, suggesting that flat US productivity growth reflects declining effects of patents on productivity, not a diminished ability of firms to turn research into ideas, according to Teresa C. Fort, Nathan Goldschlag, Jack Liang, Peter K. Schott, and Nikolas Zolas.
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