National Bureau of Economic Research
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Global Evidence on Business Use of AI
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Despite the rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI), internationally comparable data on how businesses use this new tool are scarce. In Firm Data on AI (NBER Working Paper 34836), Ivan Yotzov, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Steven J. Davis, Kevin M. Foster, Aaron Jalca, Brent H. Meyer, Paul Mizen, Michael A. Navarrete, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites, and Ben Zhe Wang address this gap by fielding a representative, multi-country survey...
From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries
Program Report: Development Economics
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The Development Economics (DEV) program was launched in 2012 and has 190 affiliated researchers. The success the program is enjoying today is in very large part thanks to Duncan Thomas, who led the program for its first six years. A unique aspect of the program is its close connections with BREAD, the Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development, which is an independent group with worldwide membership. Our fall program meeting is held jointly with BREAD every other year.
Development economics is, broadly speaking, the study of two questions. First, why are some countries poor while other countries are wealthy?…
From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship
Capital Gains Taxation and Startup Founders
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The US capital gains tax is realization based, which means that taxes are due when appreciated assets are sold. Critics of this approach argue that it allows asset holders, such as corporate founders, to defer their tax obligations, sometimes indefinitely. An alternative approach, taxing gains on accrual, would require asset holders to value their assets periodically and to pay tax on the gain since the last valuation. Critics of this approach argue that it could force founders to surrender ownership stakes just to pay tax bills, potentially discouraging startup formation. In Dilution vs. Risk Taking: Capital Gains Taxes and Entrepreneurship (NBER Working Paper 34512), Eduardo M. Azevedo, Florian Scheuer, Kent Smetters, and Min Yang examine how shifting from realization-based to accrual-based capital gains...
From the NBER Bulletin on Health
Immunotherapy Increases the Cost of Cancer Care but Reduces Mortality
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Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are immunotherapy drugs that mobilize the patient’s immune system to detect and attack cancer cells. They are considered a breakthrough development in cancer care, but are very expensive, with a full course of treatment costing more than $150,000 per patient. In The Impact of Immunotherapy on Reductions in Cancer Mortality: Evidence from Medicare (NBER Working Paper 34317), Danea Horn, Abby E. Alpert, Mark Duggan, and Mireille Jacobson use Medicare claims data to evaluate the impact of the first ICIs on healthcare use, costs, and mortality among beneficiaries diagnosed with...
Featured Working Papers
Jacob Bastian and Melody Harvey find that the 2022 expiration of the expanded Child Tax Credit reduced consumer sentiment by 1.7 points per $1,000 in lost benefits. Effects were concentrated among lower-income families with children and persisted nearly two years after expiration.
Over the period 2012–2023, on average, Congressional stock portfolios matched or underperformed market benchmarks, with buy-sell decisions tracking publicly observable signals rather than insider information, according to Haotian Chen and Bruce Sacerdote.
Joshua K. Hausman, John V. Leahy, John Mondragon, and Johannes Wieland find that nominal, not real, mortgage interest rates drive housing demand, because fixed nominal payment structures tighten borrowers' payment-to-income constraints. Nominal rate increases have larger effects in high- than in low-leverage cities.
In a study of the US Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, Christoph Boehm and Changseok Ma find that households spent about 80 cents of every stimulus dollar on durable goods within three months of receipt, mostly on vehicle purchases. For every stimulus dollar received, the average household borrowed an additional 40 cents in vehicle financing.
While China now surpasses the US in annual AI patent counts, cross-border citations show continued technological interdependence rather than decoupling, Hanming Fang, Xian Gu, Hanyin Yan, and Wu Zhu find. Chinese AI inventors rely more heavily on US frontier knowledge than vice versa.
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