National Bureau of Economic Research

When nations experience rapid economic modernization, traditional family values can clash with new social realities and result in sharply declining birth rates. This insight helps to explain why some developed countries have much lower current fertility rates than others, despite having had higher rates in the recent past.

In Babies and the Macroeconomy (NBER Working Paper 33311), Claudia Goldin examines fertility patterns across 12 developed nations. She divides the countries into two groups: one, comprising Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden, the UK, and the US, that experienced relatively steady economic growth throughout the twentieth century, and the other, Greece, Italy, Japan, Korea,…

Matthew J. Kotchen, Tatyana Deryugina, and Catherine D. Wolfram, editors.

This volume presents six new papers on environmental and energy economics and policy. 

How do societal norms, public policies, and economic forces shape outcomes for men and women? My recent work, with several collaborators, addresses how gender disparities in labor markets influence individual opportunities, household decisions, and overall economic productivity. It brings together insights from long-term historical trends and the extensive gender literature to examine both progress and persistent challenges to gender equality...

Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD) represent a growing global health crisis, with cases projected to reach 131.5 million by 2050. The economic burden is substantial: In 2020, ADRD cost the United States $305 billion, with forecasts suggesting a threefold increase over the next 35 years in the absence of effective interventions. While previous research has associated lower educational attainment with increased ADRD risk, establishing causality has proved challenging due to potential confounding factors including childhood circumstances, socioeconomic background, and genetic predisposition.

In Education and Dementia Risk (NBER Working Paper 33430), researchers Silvia H. Barcellos, Leandro Carvalho, Kenneth Langa, Sneha Nimmagadda, and Patrick Turley leverage a natural experiment to investigate...

In How Do Economic Conditions Affect Earnings and Return to Disability Programs for Beneficiaries Whose Benefits Were Terminated? (NBER RDRC Paper NB22-03), Jeffrey Hemmeter, Kathleen Mullen, and Stephanie Rennane find that individuals whose benefits end due to medical improvement during an economic downturn earn less in the short run and are more likely to reapply for benefits within five years than those...

Immigrants to the US are more entrepreneurial than the native population and overrepresented among high-growth startups and venture-backed tech firms. In Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda (NBER Working Paper 32400), Saheel Chodavadia, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr, and Louis Maiden use business surveys and administrative employment records to provide new evidence on the prevalence and predictors of immigrant...