Department of Economics
University of Chicago
5757 S. University Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
NBER Program Affiliations:
NBER Affiliation: Faculty Research Fellow
Institutional Affiliation: University of Chicago
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2019||Nonparametric Estimates of Demand in the California Health Insurance Exchange|
with Alexander Torgovitsky, Hanbin Yang: w25827
We estimate the demand for health insurance in the California Affordable Care Act marketplace (Covered California) without using parametric assumptions about the unobserved components of utility. To do this, we develop a computational method for constructing sharp identified sets in a nonparametric discrete choice model. The model allows for endogeneity in prices (premiums) and for the use of instrumental variables to address this endogeneity. We use the method to estimate bounds on the effects of changing premium subsidies on coverage choices, consumer surplus, and government spending. We find that a $10 decrease in monthly premium subsidies would cause between a 1.6% and 7.0% decline in the proportion of low-income adults with coverage. The reduction in total annual consumer surplus woul...
|January 2015||The Impact of Market Size and Composition on Health Insurance Premiums: Evidence from the First Year of the ACA|
with Michael J. Dickstein, Mark Duggan, Joseph Orsini: w20907
Under the Affordable Care Act, individual states have discretion in how they define coverage regions, within which insurers must charge the same premium to buyers of the same age, family structure, and smoking status. We exploit variation in these definitions to investigate whether the size of the coverage region affects outcomes in the ACA marketplaces. We find large consequences for small and rural markets. When states combine small counties with neighboring urban areas into a single region, the included rural markets see .6 to .8 more active insurers, on average, and savings in annual premiums of between $200 and $300.
Published: Dickstein, Michael J., Mark Duggan, Joe Orsini, and Pietro Tebaldi. 2015. "The Impact of Market Size and Composition on Health Insurance Premiums: Evidence from the First Year of the Affordable Care Act." American Economic Review, 105 (5): 120-25. DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20151083