The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier
We show how real and financial frictions amplify, prolong and propagate the negative impact of uncertainty shocks. We first use a novel instrumentation strategy to address endogeneity in estimating the impact of uncertainty by exploiting differential firm exposure to exchange rate, policy, and energy price volatility in a panel of US firms. Using common proxies for financial constraints we show that ex-ante financially constrained firms cut their investment even more than unconstrained firms following an uncertainty shock. We then build a general equilibrium heterogeneous firms model with real and financial frictions, finding financial frictions: i) amplify uncertainty shocks by doubling their impact on output; ii) increase persistence by extending the duration of the drop by 50%; and iii) propagate uncertainty shocks by spreading their impact onto financial variables. These results highlight why in periods of greater financial frictions uncertainty can be particularly damaging.
Published Versions
Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, vol 132(2), pages 577-615.