State-run Banks, Money Growth, and the Real Economy
Within countries, state-run banks’ lending correlates with prior money growth; otherwise similar private-sector banks’ lending does not. Aggregate credit and investment growth correlate with prior money growth more where banking systems are more state-run. Size and liquidity differences between state-run and private-sector banks do not drive these results; further tests discount broad classes of alternative explanations. Tests exploiting heterogeneity in likely political pressure on state-run banks associated with privatizations and elections suggest a command-and-control pseudo-monetary policy channel: changes in money growth, perhaps reflecting political pressure on the central bank, change banks’ lending constraints; political pressure actually changes state-run banks’ lending.
Published Versions
Randall Morck & M. Deniz Yavuz & Bernard Yeung, 2019. "State-Run Banks, Money Growth, and the Real Economy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5914-5932, December. citation courtesy of