National Bureau of Economic Research

Investments in research, development, and innovation are widely recognized as key drivers of long-term economic growth but estimates of the social rate of return on these investments vary substantially. To encourage research on this topic, sometimes called "The Griliches Question," the NBER has launched a five-year project that will be organized around the creation of a pop-up journal devoted to this issue. The project will be led by NBER affiliates Craig Garthwaite (Northwestern University) and Timothy Simcoe (Boston University). A steering committee of leading scholars and policy experts will help guide the project, which will host an…

Why do seemingly identical firms produce such different outcomes? In US manufacturing, plants at the 90th percentile produce twice the output of those at the 10th percentile using the same inputs. This enormous productivity dispersion persists even after controlling for management quality, information technology (IT) adoption, and capital intensity. A missing piece of the puzzle: firms differ substantially in how they measure and report their economic activity. These differences matter. Financial reporting quality, defined as the rigor with which firms track, verify, and disclose their operations, explains as much productivity variation as management practices or information technology adoption. This operates through two channels: better information for managers and more accurate measurement for economists.

In Measurement Matters: Financial Reporting and Productivity (NBER Working Paper 34536), John M. Barrios, Brian C. Fujiy, Petro Lisowsky, and Michael Minnis exploit a unique,,,

The US government has long promoted homeownership through subsidies and tax incentives, viewing it as both socially beneficial and a primary pathway to individual wealth accumulation. For the middle class—those in roughly the middle three-fifths of the wealth distribution—housing wealth remains the most important source of financial security and net worth. Homeownership is also widely believed to provide access to better neighborhoods and higher-quality schools. Yet despite these advantages, homeownership entails significant risks. Homeowners are exposed to housing market downturns that can rapidly erode equity, as well as to income and employment shocks that can compromise their ability to meet mortgage obligations. Such disruptions can lead to delinquency and, in severe cases, the loss of one’s home. Although…

Death rates due to drug poisonings began to surge in the US in the mid-1990s, marking the emergence of an epidemic that has persisted for three decades. The health consequences have been stark, with annual deaths exceeding 100,000 since 2021.

In Prescription for Disaster: The SSDI Rate, Pain, and Prescribing Practices (NBER Working Paper 34265), William N. Evans and Ethan M. J. Lieber examine characteristics of counties in 1990—prior to the surge—that predict the county-level severity of opioid deaths after 2000. After considering a wide range of potential determinants, they focus on one factor: the percentage of the working-age population...

Younger entrepreneurs are disadvantaged in small business loan markets because lenders rely heavily on personal credit scores, which favor long histories of repaying debt. In Modernizing Access to Credit for Younger Entrepreneurs: From FICO to Cash Flow (NBER Working Paper 33367), researchers Christopher M. Hair, Sabrina T. Howell, Mark J. Johnson, and Siena Matsumoto document this fact and show that younger entrepreneurs benefit from underwriting that augments personal credit scores (like FICO) with cash flow data. They analyze comprehensive…