NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Lieven Baele

Tilburg University
5000 LE Tilburg
The Netherlands

E-Mail: Lieven.Baele@uvt.nl
Institutional Affiliation: Tilburg University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2013Flights to Safety
with Geert Bekaert, Koen Inghelbrecht, Min Wei: w19095
We identify flight-to-safety (FTS) days for 23 countries using only stock and bond returns and a model averaging approach. FTS days comprise less than 2% of the sample, and are associated with a 2.7% average bond-equity return differential and significant flows out of equity funds and into government bond and money market funds. FTS represents flights to both quality and liquidity in international equity markets, but mainly a flight-to-quality in the US corporate bond market. Emerging markets, endowment funds, and hedge funds all perform poorly during FTS, while hedge funds appear to vary their systematic exposures prior to a FTS.
May 2011Macroeconomic Regimes
with Geert Bekaert, Seonghoon Cho, Koen Inghelbrecht, Antonio Moreno: w17090
We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. We identify accommodating monetary policy before 1980, with activist monetary policy prevailing most but not 100% of the time thereafter. Systematic monetary policy switched to the activist regime in the 2000-2005 period through an aggressive lowering of interest rates. Discretionary policy spells became less frequent since 1985, but the Volcker period is identified as a discretionary period. Output shocks shift to the low volatility regime around 1985 whereas inflation shocks do so only around 1990, suggesting active monetary policy may have played role in anchoring inflation...

Published: Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71. citation courtesy of

August 2009The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements
with Geert Bekaert, Koen Inghelbrecht: w15260
We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovements and its time variation using a dynamic factor model. We identify the economic factors employing a semi-structural regime-switching model for state variables such as interest rates, inflation, the output gap, and cash flow growth. We also view risk aversion, uncertainty about inflation and output, and liquidity proxies as additional potential factors. We find that macro-economic fundamentals contribute little to explaining stock and bond return correlations, but that other factors, especially liquidity proxies, play a more important role. The macro factors are still important in fitting bond return volatility; whereas the "variance premium" is critical in explaining stock return volatility. However, the factor model primarily fa...

Published: Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June. citation courtesy of

 
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